Alcoa Surges 12%. Iranian Attacks Hit Rival Smelters. Is This the Trade of the Week?

Iran struck two of the world's largest aluminum smelters. Aluminum is up 100%+ since the conflict began. Here's why Alcoa is the clearest winner. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  

March 31, 2026 Alcoa Surges 12% as Iranian Attacks Hit Rival Smelters. Is This the Trade of the Week? Alcoa (AA) stock jumped as much as 12.8% on Monday after Iranian missile and drone attacks struck two of the world's largest aluminum smelters in the UAE and Bahrain over the weekend. The Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum production. With aluminum prices up 100%+ since the Iran conflict began and near four-year highs, Alcoa is the clearest winner. The attacks targeted Emirates Global Aluminium's Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Aluminium Bahrain's facility, both reporting significant damage. Aluminum forward contracts surged 4% to 4.8%, hitting near four-year highs. As the largest pure-play U.S. aluminum producer with operations in the Americas, Australia, and Europe, Alcoa faces none of the conflict-zone risk while capturing all the pricing upside. Sponsored This "Fluorescent Sand" Could Be Bigger Than the Internet Itself Ian King at Banyan Hill has identified a California company sitting on the only significant U.S. deposit of a material that makes fiber optic cables 100x faster. He calls it "fluorescent sand" — and says the investment window is closing fast. Get the free briefing. › Why Alcoa Wins When Rivals Get Hit EGA and Alba are among the lowest-cost, highest-volume aluminum smelters in the world, backed by cheap Gulf energy and state capital. When facilities of that scale go offline, the global market feels it immediately. Alcoa's production is concentrated in the Americas, Australia, and Europe — well outside the conflict zone. That geographic separation means Alcoa faces none of the operational risk while capturing all of the pricing upside. Century Aluminum (CENX) and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) also saw gains Monday, but Alcoa has the greatest leverage to sustained elevated prices. How Long Does This Last? The bear case is resolution. If Middle East tensions ease quickly, Alcoa's premium evaporates. The bull case is duration: smelter repairs take months, the Strait of Hormuz disruption has multi-sector supply chain effects, and aluminum demand from EVs, aerospace, and construction was already tightening before this week's catalyst. For investors who believe the conflict is not resolved quickly, AA offers leveraged exposure to elevated aluminum prices with a blue-chip balance sheet. The risk is a faster-than-expected diplomatic resolution. Read the full analysis. Read the Full Report › You are receiving this e-mail at reditudo@gmail.com, as part of your subscription to Money Morning. Manage Your Preferences by clicking here. No longer interested? Unsubscribe. © 2026 Money Morning. All Rights Reserved. Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before our subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of: Agora Media, 14 West Mt Vernon Place, Baltimore, MD 21201. Money Morning is a First Light Financial, LLC publication. To contact us call 866-616-2166 or visit us online. Website  |  Privacy Policy  |  Terms & Conditions