Key Points
- Amazon shares fell more than 7% in pre-market trading after third-quarter results, despite AWS posting its fastest growth in nearly five years.
- Investors focused on Amazon's roughly $220 billion capital spending plan this year, which has kept trailing free cash flow negative.
- Analysts at Jefferies and Deepwater Asset Management remained optimistic about AWS's growth prospects, even as the market punished Amazon's heavy AI-related spending.
- Special Report: Today's pick is on the house...
When a company posts its best-ever operating margin and the stock still tumbles, something else is doing the talking. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported after the close on Oct. 29, and the market was quick to judge. Its shares were down more than 7% in pre-market trading the next day, around 20% below the record high they set in August.
The timing in particular will sting. Amazon is heading into the holiday period, usually its biggest quarter of the year, with its share price back where it sat almost two years ago. And it got there despite a quarter in which AWS, its key cloud division, had its strongest run in years.
So what did investors hate so much about the quarter? The answer has less to do with what Amazon earned than with what it’s spending to get there.
AWS Did the Heavy Lifting
Start with the business that matters most. AWS reaccelerated to its fastest pace in almost five years, a sixth straight quarter of speeding up, and it did so while widening its margins rather than squeezing them, a sign that AI demand is flowing through to bottom-line profit rather than just soaking up capital.
For a market that’s growing ever more wary of fat AI budgets that have nothing to show for them, a cloud business growing faster and more profitably at once was the most reassuring thing in the report.
The backing behind AWS looks solid too, with a fast-growing order backlog and management guidance pointing to more than 40% growth in both 2027 and 2028. From that viewpoint alone, this was a good quarter.
What Spooked the Market
So why the brutal market reaction? Part of it was the headline: both revenue and earnings landed just shy of expectations, and the holiday-quarter guidance came in a touch light. As with many of Amazon’s hyperscaling peers, the market has little patience right now for even small misses.
The biggest worry was cash. Amazon reiterated plans to spend roughly $220 billion on capital projects this year, most of it on AWS and AI capacity, with still more promised for 2027. That outlay has kept its trailing free cash flow in the red, even as operating cash flow has been climbing.
In other words, the business is still printing money, but it’s pouring more back into infrastructure than it makes. Add a cooling in high-margin advertising, and investors were left with the question hanging over the whole sector: when does all this spending start to pay off?
A Rough Week to Report
It didn’t help that Amazon also picked a bad week to disappoint. A day earlier, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) had tumbled more than 12% after its own results, punished for an earnings miss and softer search monetization even as its cloud business boomed. The message was hard to miss: the market has stopped asking whether AI demand is real and started asking when it’ll throw off cash.
It’s a subtle shift, but an important one, turning a company’s spending plans, rather than its growth rate, into what moves the stock, however good the growth looks.
That said, not everyone got the same treatment. Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT), which reassured investors it would stay free-cash-flow positive, came through its report earlier this week broadly unscathed. The dividing line was cash discipline, and on that measure Amazon, with the sector’s largest capital program and a free-cash-flow outflow to match, was always going to land on the wrong side.
What Wall Street Made of It
As for reactions, analysts were far more optimistic than the price action. Jefferies stayed constructive, conceding that spending could keep climbing and weighing on cash flow, but arguing that AWS’s swelling backlog, its pricing power in the cloud, and the strength of Amazon’s retail machine more than offset the investment worry.
Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster struck a similar note, reckoning AWS can stay a major growth engine for years even if AI eventually reshapes how people shop. The common thread: few doubt the AWS story; the argument is whether that growth justifies the bill Amazon is running up to fund it.
A Discount Into End of Year?
Add it up, and Amazon walks into its biggest quarter of the year trading at late-2024 prices, while AWS’ trajectory grows ever steeper. For the bulls, that’s an opportunity: the company’s operating engine is humming, its margins are holding, and the post-earnings sell-off reads as a flinch at spending rather than a verdict on the business underneath it.
Still, the bears have the simpler case for now. Until Amazon’s free cash flow shows signs of turning positive again, Amazon is asking investors to fund an enormous bet and wait for the payoff. This week’s reaction showed how little patience the market has left for waiting.
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