Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Wishful thinking?
A fragile ceasefire has already shaken the odds—but markets still aren’t convinced that permanent peace is anywhere close. With each new day, things feel increasingly less secure.
A Democrat sweep?
Democrats are now projected to seize control of both chambers of Congress this November, but the odds are less than certain. Can they pull it off?
Escape from the play-in
We don't fully know the NBA Play-In Tournament entries from the East yet, but we do know the West -- the Suns (82%) and Clippers (57%) are clear favorites to grab the last 2 playoff spots over the Blazers (37%) and Warriors (24%).
Bieberchella
Justin Bieber looks ready to go for his headlining Coachella act this weekend. Fans speculate whether he'll bring out an old favorite to open his set, after Bieber confirmed he’ll perform songs from both ‘Swag’ projects, along with some of his classic hits. What will be first?
Masters money
This trader is already up nearly $100k on 5 Masters trades. Whatever outcome, they seem set for success.
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?
Trump approval rating on April 10?
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Who will Justin Bieber feature at Coachella?
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
The Masters - Winner
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
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