Editor's note: The market runs on data... Here at Chaikin Analytics, we know that better than anyone. Our Power Gauge system looks at 20 different factors behind a stock and gives it a rating ranging from "very bullish" to "very bearish."
Editor's note: The market runs on data...
Here at Chaikin Analytics, we know that better than anyone. Our Power Gauge system looks at 20 different factors behind a stock and gives it a rating ranging from "very bullish" to "very bearish."
Some of the most important data our system utilizes is what we call the "Chaikin Money Flow." This tracks the spending habits of the big Wall Street institutions. When Money Flow is in the green, that means there's enough support to push a stock higher.
While this data has helped everyday investors get an edge on the market, our founder Marc Chaikin recently found another source of data that tracks consumer spending... letting investors get in on trends evenearlier.
Andy shares how he and his brother started tracking consumer data – and how that led to explosive gains...
Hedge Funds Count Cars From Space
By Andy Swan, senior analyst, TradeSmith
Some hedge funds count cars from space...
They buy satellite photos of retail parking lots and count the vehicles, trying to estimate a store's sales before the company reports them.
Other funds track the weather, betting that temperatures and big storms move consumer spending. Some hire teams to track the flight paths of corporate jets, hoping to spot the next big merger.
The short seller Marc Cohodes once admitted to digging through dumpsters for papers that companies had thrown away.
All of it comes from the same instinct. By the time sales numbers show up in earnings reports, months have often passed since shoppers actually spent that money. So the pros look for clues wherever they can find them.
My brother Landon and I understood that instinct. But we discovered that the best clues were sitting somewhere much more ordinary: in the posts people were writing every day online.
So we built a proprietary data engine to track them. It has led our subscribers to multiple triple-digit gains.
And thanks to a major upgrade from Wall Street "quant" legend Marc Chaikin, our edge is now sharper than ever.
As I'll show you today, it has delivered gains as high as 5,970%, 7,488%, and 8,076% in our testing.
But before we get to the upgrade, it's important for you to understand how our data engine works... and how it gives us an edge.
Every Consumer 'Vote' in Real Time
Every day, millions of Americans post online about what they're buying. The restaurants they went to. The products they loved... and the ones they hated. The tech gadget they can't wait to get their hands on.
That's a vote for (or against) a product or service and the company behind it.
Every post is a consumer voting with their dollars, or telling you how they're about to. And because those posts are online, you can watch the votes come in live... months before they show up in a company's official numbers.
So in 2012, we started tracking it all. We built a system to collect those posts and sort through them. We weren't interested in selfies or political opinions. We were looking for what people bought and what they complained about.
And because our data goes all the way back to the earliest days of social media, we could track how those trends changed over years, not just days.
For the first few years, we were trying to answer the question: Could all this data actually predict what people buy?
Then, in January 2015, Landon and I sat down with our Christmas-shopping data, and we found our answer.
At the time, most of our data came from Twitter... and one number didn't make sense. Chatter about buying Ugg boots – those fluffy sheepskin boots teenagers love – was down 40% from the Christmas before.
This was during the busiest shopping season of the year, for one of the most popular brands in the country. We double-checked the numbers. Then we triple-checked them.
If they were right, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) had a serious problem, because Uggs made up more than 80% of the company's sales.
So we published a warning. We wrote that Deckers could have run into serious headwinds in its third quarter, which wouldn't bode well for its earnings report, due out the next day.
And sure enough, the company slashed its full-year forecast. And the stock plunged nearly 20% – nearly a drop into bear market territory.
Wall Street found out on earnings day that teenagers had turned sour on Ugg boots and stopped buying. We'd seen it coming in posts that anyone could have read.
Deckers shareholders who heeded our warning could have saved themselves a lot of money.
Marc Chaikin is giving everyone who signs up for his announcement today at 1 p.m. FREE access to his brand-new investment tool – which combines his Power Gauge with data that hedge funds have paid up to $750,000 a year to access. Use it on more than 1,000 stocks the instant you sign up. Plus, get the names of THREE free stock picks during the event. Click here to claim your access.
In 1971, the "Nixon Shock" rewrote the rules of American money overnight – and blindsided almost everyone. Now, five decades later, it could happen again. A single date – Wednesday, November 4 – could go down in history as the "Shelton Shock" hits the dollar... the bond market... and your portfolio... all at once. Almost no one on Main Street has heard the name yet... But they soon will. Click here for the full story behind "Project Hamilton" while there's still time.
23.5 Terabytes of Data... and Counting
After Deckers, Landon and I got to work refining an early warning system around this data... and we've spent more than $10 million on it since.
We still pull from Twitter – now X – where we're a preferred partner with direct, real-time access. We also track Facebook, Reddit, YouTube, search trends, web traffic, and app downloads.
And with the help of AI, we can now pull data from podcasts, video transcripts, forums, and app reviews, too. This gives us a clearer picture of the purchase intentions of millions of shoppers.
All told, we've collected 23.5 terabytes of data. That's more than the entire book collection of the Library of Congress. We've come a long way from counting posts about Ugg boots.
But the hard part isn't collecting the data. It's knowing which parts of it matter. Not every online mention carries the same weight, and not every trend turns into corporate revenue. Our AI also helps us separate the noise from the signal, company by company.
It's why some of America's top hedge funds have paid up to $750,000 a year for access to our data. And for our newsletter subscribers, we've closed 28 trades that doubled or more in the past five years.
On the surface, the news today is good. Our data tells us consumer spending is still holding up. And we're still bullish on the consumer heading into 2027.
Some companies and households are doing fantastic, while others are falling behind. And the gap is widening every quarter.
In a market like this, our consumer insights are more important than ever. Some stocks are poised to soar. And some well-known consumer brands will suffer.
That's why we're joining Marc Chaikin for The Stock Tsunami Event today at 1 p.m. Eastern time.
For the first time ever, we've combined our consumer-sentiment data with Marc's Power Gauge. And our testing results have been spectacular.
We went back through the data and found 432 cases where both systems lined up... where Marc's Power Gauge had turned "bullish" and our data showed demand heating up at the same time. In 260 of them, or roughly 6 out of every 10, the stock went on to double or more at its peak.
Take quantum-computing company Rigetti Computing (RGTI), for example. In early 2023, it was a Wall Street punch line. Its stock had fallen more than 90% since it went public. It faced delisting, and its CEO had stepped down. But on March 9, 2023, both of our systems aligned on it anyway. Over the next two and a half years, it soared as much as 8,076%.
Our systems also spotted video game retailer GameStop (GME) eight months before the meme-stock squeeze made headlines after it went viral on Reddit. It went on to jump as much as 7,488%.
And they aligned on energy-drink maker Celsius (CELH) in early 2020... before it shot up as much as 5,970%.
These are some of the best examples from our back tests. And while no system wins every time... 6 out of 10 is a hit rate we'd never have seen from our data alone.
So why do the two systems work so well together? Because each one sees a different part of the same wave.
Think of Marc's Power Gauge system like the buoy near the shore. It reads how a company's finances look, how its stock is moving, and whether big institutional money is flowing in or out. From that, it can tell how large the wave is as it gets close... and its red, yellow, and green ratings tell you whether it's a good time to get on it.
Our data is the sensor on the ocean floor. It picks up the first movement, when people start buying, long before any of that shows up in a company's numbers.
At The Stock Tsunami Event, Landon, Marc, and I will walk you through what both systems are showing right now... why you'll want to have access to this research before November 3... and three free stock ideas: two urgent buys and one even more urgent sell.
Some funds are counting cars from space. We're taking the pulse of millions of American shoppers every day. And we can't wait to show you what our systems are picking up right now.
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks have become somewhat more Bearish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Utilities
+2.88%
Real Estate
+2.71%
Energy
+2.71%
Health Care
+2.07%
Financial
+1.74%
Staples
+0.86%
Materials
+0.84%
Information Technology
+0.19%
Industrials
+0.17%
Discretionary
-0.17%
Communication
-5.67%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Retail
4
49
23
Over the past 6 months, the Retail subsector (XRT) has underperformed the S&P 500 by 4.47%. Its Power Bar ratio which measures future potential is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #19 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 5 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AN
AutoNation, Inc.
BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
LITE
+8.19%
FIX
+7.18%
P
+6.49%
COHR
+5.83%
SNPS
+5.62%
Losers
FICO
-13.15%
DASH
-6.10%
CHTR
-5.92%
NVR
-4.28%
RDDT
-4.02%
* * * *
Earnings report
Earnings Surprises
NE Noble Corporation plc
Q3
$-0.57
Missed by $-0.80
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Q3
$2.86
Beat by $0.75
AGYS Agilysys, Inc.
Q2
$0.67
Beat by $0.12
SUI Sun Communities, Inc.
Q3
$1.16
Beat by $0.19
BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc.
Q3
$0.26
Beat by $0.04
* * * *
You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, click here.
You're receiving this e-mail at reditudo@gmail.com.
For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call +1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.
Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.
Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment