Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
CIA cartel hit
Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum has denied reports of a covert CIA hit on cartel leaders. Polymarket traders think this makes overt U.S. strikes in Mexico less likely.
Gerry
Odds for South Carolina to redraw its congressional map ahead of the midterms shot up yesterday, bringing the total to 10 states likely to redistrict. Democrats' odds to win the House have slipped almost 10 points since the Supreme Court's ruling on the Voting Rights Act.
Quick Links
Bezos Bowl
Who wants to buy an NFL team? The champs are up for sale. Here's who traders think will own the Seahawks next.
Oil shortage?
ConocoPhillips is warning of imminent “critical shortages” of oil. But this Polymarket oil specialist is positioned for a plunge in crude prices.
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?
Cerebras IPO Closing Market Cap
# of Packages Pushed by Figure's F.03 Robots by May 21, 10 PM ET?
Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 23
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
Eurovision Winner 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Next French Presidential Election
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here.
